Short Sale Stats

Rental Rates on the Rise

Because of the challenges in the current economy, many families have either decided to rent or been forced to rent. How has this impacted rental options and the cost of the available options?
Housing Wire recently quoted Paul Dales, senior economist with Capital Economics:

“As a consequence of Americans being less willing and less able to buy a home, the number of households in rented accommodation is set to rise by at least 850,000 a year over the next few years.”

The price of anything is determined by supply and demand. As demand increases, the price of an item will increase unless there is an equal increase in supply. The article mentioned above said:

“Dales said in his research that rental vacancy rates will fall again in the future, pushing prices up. The median rent is already up to $712 per month—well above the average monthly mortgage cost of $647, Dales reported.
He estimates vacancies in the home-rental market will push average rental rates up as much as 5% by early 2013.”

How many markets will be impacted? A new rent index offered by Zillow:

“…showed year-over-year gains for 69.2 percent of metropolitan areas covered.”

Bottom Line

Rents are increasing and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. In many parts of the country, buying a home might make more sense as you can lock in your housing expense for the next thirty years.

Cost vs Price - Solano County Mortgages Cost Less

Buying a Home? The COST Is More Important Than the PRICE Posted: 19 Mar 2012 04:00 AM PDT We have often advised buyers to look at the COST of purchasing a house more than the PRICE of the home. Obviously, price is part of the cost equation. The other piece, assuming you are not an all cash buyer, is the mortgage rate. The mortgage rate to finance a purchase can have a dramatic impact on the overall cost. Recently, there are more people talking about the possibility that mortgage rates could begin to increase. HSH.com studies trends in mortgage rates. They explain: “A better economic climate almost always brings higher rates, and a lessening of the troubles in Europe from massive central bank assistance adds to the movement of money from safe havens to more risky assets, driving rates upward.” Dan Green of The Daily Market Reports recently stated: “The Fed sees growth coming faster than originally expected. There’s suddenly less chance that the Federal Reserve will intervene to help keep mortgage rates low. Absent Fed intervention, mortgage rates are apt to rise and Wall Street is now betting that the Fed has bowed out. With no stimulus, mortgage rates rise.” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Assoc of Realtors, recently wrote: “Mortgage rates will be starting to rise. From the 3.9 to 4.0 percent average rate in the past five months on a 30-year fixed mortgage, the new rates will soon be in the range of 4.3 to 4.6 percent.” Yun explains his logic here. We do not attempt to predict future interest rates. We leave that up to the experts in the field. However, we want our readers to understand the potential impact on the cost of purchasing a home if they do rise. Here is a simple table that shows, even if the PRICE of a home softens, the COST of a home could increase. Bottom Line Many purchasers think they should wait until they are sure that prices have hit bottom. Deciding whether or not to wait should be determined by where the COST of a home is headed.

March Madness - Real Estate Mortgages

It’s the time of year when the so-called experts tell you how to fill out your brackets for college basketball. The frenzy has been coined March Madness. Well, in the mortgage industry, we are seeing a frenzy of headlines, offers of so-called expert advice, and an unusually high level of buzz around real estate and mortgages. Here are some of the things I keep hearing…

• “The bank bailout settlement is going to allow all the shadow inventory to come to market at lower prices, which is going to drive home prices even lower.” Likely true. How much and how fast prices fall will be determined by the speed at which lenders proceed with the foreclosures.
• “The bank bailout settlement means people will get large principal reductions in their loans, if they are underwater.” Some will, most won’t. In its settlement, Bank of America will exclude loans owned by FannieMae/FreddieMac. This agreement will probably be mirrored by others, and therefore, won’t help a good portion of the population.
• “The government has finally helped the homeowner who is underwater yet still maintained a good payment history.” Semi-true. If you have an FHA loan closed prior to June 2009, you are able to do a streamline IF rates make sense in June (too soon to tell). If you closed after June 2009, no such luck. On the conventional front, HARP 2.0 may offer some help to those who have had their loan held by FannieMae/FreddieMac as long as there was no private mortgage insurance. Not exactly all inclusive – but applaudable.
• “You need to put 20% down to get a mortgage these days.” I hear this crazy notion from people far too often. Besides the FHA insuring loans with as little as 3.5% down (on loans up to $729,250 in high cost areas), people often forget that veterans can still finance 100% of the purchase price, and that Private Mortgage Insurance Companies are still insuring loans with 5-10% down.
• “Costs associated with loans are going up.” Most definitely. The hike in the guarantee fees has already caused a 3/8 – 1/2 increase in conventional loans and will raise FHA loans by 10 basis points in April. The FHA is also changing its premium structure to increase the cost of the mortgage—regardless of where rates themselves are headed.
• “Rates will stay low through 2014.” While every indication from Ben Bernacke & friends is consistent in their rhetoric that rates will stay low, we have already seen some significant swings in rates based on market conditions (unemployment numbers, problems in Greece, and so on). Rates will likely stay low, but getting the best rate will still require staying on top of everything.

Amongst the whirlwind of sound bites and headlines, there is some good news about real estate and mortgages. Never as rosy as it may sound, there is relief and opportunity for many  if you can sort through the hyperbole and consult with a true professional to make sure you have all the facts.

Time to Refinance? I think so!

There have been a few developing (and some already existing) programs that are worth mentioning, as the newspaper headlines applaud the opportunity. With interest rates remaining at near historic lows for quite some time, many people have been unable to take advantage of these rates because of problems in securing a high enough appraised value.
To that end, here are a few thoughts to consider:

New FHA Streamline Announcement

HUD announced that they will be rolling back the insurance premiums on this program for loans closed prior to June 2009. The Upfront Premium (the one that is added into the loan amount) will be .01% and the annual premium (the one that is paid in the monthly payment) will be slashed to .55%. These cuts could reduce borrowers’ expenses drastically. This program can be done where the lender pays the closing costs – without an appraisal, income verification, or even a credit check. Most lenders will look for a good mortgage payment history.

The VA IRRL – (Interest Rate Reduction Loan)

For people with existing VA mortgages, this program allows reasonable closing costs to be added into the loan. There is no new appraisal required, nor is there an income calculation. Basically, as long as the veteran is getting a payment at least $50 lower, it is good to go. In some cases, veterans may choose to reduce the term of their loan (instead of a monthly savings). This can be done with some documents delivered to the lender.

HARP 2

This is a program for loans currently owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac wherein the house is underwater. Under this program, lenders may be able to reduce your interest rate despite your loan-to-value. Each mortgage investor is developing their own underwriting and risk criteria, but the good news is that people with good payment histories can take advantage of the great rates – even though their home has declined in value.
I gave you a very general overview of some loan products here today. There are many considerations (ex. closing costs and time you intend to stay in the home) and qualification items that will pertain to your individual circumstance. My intent was to heighten awareness and get you to reach out to Nate Pina at Sierra Pacific Mortgage in Vacaville, California and see if there is an opportunity for you.

Buying Costs Going Up! Get into Contract Before April.

In a move to increase their financial standing (and to get the FHA back into required capital requirements), on Monday, HUD announced their anticipated increases in the premiums they charge borrowers. Simply stated, the cost of borrowing is going up.
FHA loans, by design, are more liberal in their underwriting guidelines than most conventional loan products (in terms of credit, income ratios, required investment from the borrower, and maximum loan amount). HUD is not a lender. Rather, it is a federally-insured insurance company. They insure lenders against default on loans underwritten in compliance with their published guidelines. It is because of this insurance that lenders approve and close loans with more liberal guidelines.
As an insurance company, HUD charges two types of premiums on the FHA mortgages:

• The UFMIP (Up Front Mortgage Insurance Premium) will be raised effective April 1, 2012 from its current 1% to 1.75%. One advantage to the UFMIP is the fact that it is typically built into the loan amount and does not require additional cash outlay at closing. However, the increase in loan amount does impact monthly payment and cash flow.
• The MMIP (Monthly Mortgage Insurance Premium) will be raised 10 basis points on April 1, 2012 to cover the requirements of the payroll tax extension approved last year. This is a direct increase of 10 basis points in the borrower’s mortgage payment, and has the effect of a 10 basis point increase in interest rates. As a kicker, loans over $625,000 will be bumped 35 basis points from today’s levels effective June 1, 2012. This bump is substantial, as you can see in the chart below.

For a larger version, click on the image.

On a loan amount of $300,000, we are seeing an increased payment of $36.41, which doesn’t sound too bad. However, we know that home buyers buy homes comparing what their monthly payment will be after they close. This hike in payment is equivalent to borrowing an additional $7000. Starting next month, it’s as if the home became $7000 more expensive. What is the result? Buyers are going to have to pay more OR they’re going to have to offer less to the seller (to maintain the same mortgage payment they were comfortable with today). A $7000 lower offer is like another 2.5% decline of home prices. Not good for anyone.
Advice:
Sellers, price correctly and get into contract in March.
Buyers, today is the cheapest mortgage you are likely to see in your lifetime (all things considered)! Get off the fence and buy NOW!

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P.S. – Rumors are strong that FHA is looking to reduce the allowable sellers’ concession from 6% to 3% in April as well. This move will have a huge impact on how much cash will be needed to buy (especially in places like NY with the NYS Mortgage Tax).  Hurry—get in the game!